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The mathematics of the midlist.

Okay, so here's the thing:

At my DucKon reading, I was making jokes about "the thirty-five dollar retirement plan"—IE, "if everyone I know bought that many copies of my books, I'd be a lot closer to no longer needing a day job." While this really was a joke—I intend to be working in an office environment for a while yet, since I like having health insurance and paying for cable—there was also an aspect of seriousness to it. The midlist is in trouble, and has been in trouble for quite some time.

What's the midlist?

Well, to quote Wikipedia (source of all knowledge): "Midlist is a term in the publishing industry which refers to books which are not bestsellers but are strong enough to economically justify their publication (and likely, further purchases of future books from the same author). The vast majority of total titles published are midlist titles, though they represent a much smaller fraction of total book sales, which are dominated by bestsellers and other very popular titles."

Most genre authors are publishing "in the midlist." This has always been the case, and it's not a bad thing—my favorite author may be considered a blockbuster sort of a guy (Stephen King), but the majority of the authors I adore are solidly midlist, and have been for the length of their careers. I am honored to know that my books will be in the midlist, at least until my mother gets her way and convinces the entire West Coast to buy them. (If I don't type that, she'll hit me.)

So why is the midlist in trouble? A lot of reasons. Some of them have to do with marketing, some have to do with the business models of the larger chain bookstores, some have to do with the fact that people are reading less, and some have to do with the big books becoming bigger than they've ever been before. When most people only read one book a year, if that book was written by Nora Roberts instead of Jeri Smith-Ready, it matters.

Where's the math?

This will seem like a tangent, but bear with me: I was asked recently whether I had a problem with used bookstores and libraries, since the author only gets paid once. I do not have a problem with either of these things. I'd be a hypocrit if I had a problem with used bookstores, since every used bookstore owner in the East Bay knows me by name, and libraries are proof that humanity is worthy of existence. Plus, libraries do provide reporting, and they track what's popular, stocking additional copies of the things that people really want to read. Used bookstores are a form of recycling. I've always seen them as running on a sort of karma, since you only get what you really want if you're dedicated, lucky, and persistent. I have good used bookstore karma. I work very hard to maintain it.

That being said, especially with the authors in the midlist, numbers really matter. Let's say I got a ten dollar advance for Rosemary and Rue (for the sake of keeping the numbers simple). Now, I get 6% of the cover price of the first 150,000 units sold, and 8% of anything after that, since presumably once my publisher has sold that many, they really want to keep me happy. I think we figured out that this was roughly forty-eight cents a book, at current mass-market cover price. Let's call it fifty cents, because again, math is hard. It's like a word problem:

Seanan is paid a ten dollar advance for her new book. Her publisher credits her fifty cents for every copy they sell. After they have made more money than the amount of her advance, they will start paying her that money as royalties. How many copies must Seanan's book sell before she can pay the grocery bill? How many copies must Seanan's book sell before her publisher will buy the next one?

With these highly simplified numbers, the answer is easy: clearly, I need to sell twenty books to earn out my advance, and when the twenty-first book sells, woo-hoo, I can buy a can of generic soda! (Well, not really. Remember that my agent gets seven cents out of that fifty, to pay her commission. So really, there will be no celebratory soda until the twenty-second book flies off the shelf.) The trouble is that real advances, even small ones, tend to be larger than ten dollars, which means I need to sell a lot more copies before my publisher will be a happy camper.

How many copies need to sell before they want to keep publishing me? That math is truly beyond my ken, for which I am glad, as I like to sleep at night. But that is why I keep telling people where they can buy my books, and why, my passionate love of used bookstores aside, I recommend buying the books of currently-publishing midlist authors new whenever you can manage to swing it. Those little fifty-cent-per-book transactions add up, and it's the final number that really matters.

Math is hard. Where's my damn strawberry ice cream?

Seventy-five days and counting down.

We are now seventy-five days out from the release of Rosemary and Rue [Amazon]|[Mysterious Galaxies]. We're thirty-five days out from the San Diego International Comic Convention, aka "Geek Prom," aka "Seanan makes her first appearance in a public place as a professional author, rather than as a musician who occasionally writes things and says flaily stuff about a book that's coming out sometime in the far, misty future." If I had a penny for every day between now and my book hitting shelves, I couldn't even buy a cup of coffee.

Who has a ticket on the crazy train? Is it me? Why, yes, I do believe that it is. (Although my crazy is somewhat alleviated by the fact that a new Mersenne prime has been discovered. It's thirteen million digits long. I would post it here, but the text file is seventeen MB, which means it's roughly 3,500 pages of single-spaced twelve-point text. I'm not that crazy. Yet.)

We had a brief question-and-answer session at the end of my reading at DucKon, and people asked how they could make their book purchases count the most. I love these people. I love them like burning. That said...

* If you have a brick-and-mortar store, buy there. Buying a physical book from a physical store forces the store to restock, which gets more copies into circulation. Book sales are calculated using a bizarre algorithm of "copies shipped" and "copies returned." We want the first number to be enormous, and the second number to be nonexistent.

* Online orders definitely count as sales, and if you don't have a brick-and-mortar store, that's an awesome route. (Also, if you've already pre-ordered, canceling your order is probably not very nice.) Even if you don't place your order online, remember that a lot of people do, and that reviews and rankings help to inform decisions.

...which brings me to a note on reviews: please review the book honestly, and don't worry that I'll be coming for you in the night with a bucket full of bloodworms. I won't be reading Amazon reviews, remember? But please do review the book. Reviews will help get people who have no idea who I am to take a chance on me, which increases my numbers, which increases the odds of the trilogy doing well enough that we can sell the next three. Which increases the odds of my being entertainingly crazy forever.

Seventy-five days.

Great Pumpkin preserve us.

Our first winner!

And the winner (selected through random number drawing) of a signed cover flat is...

...dawn_metcalf!

Dawn, please drop me an email with your address, and I'll get this in the mail for you. Whee!
One of the downsides to being a somewhat type-A math geek girl is having a constant awareness of the various numerical milestones unfolding all around me. It's the first of May! And quite aside from the various religious (Happy Beltane!) and humorous (Happy Jonathan Coulton Says You Have Permission To Do That, But Please, Not On My Lawn Day!) implications of the date, today marks the point at which we drop from "more than four months to Rosemary and Rue" to "less than four months to Rosemary and Rue." Yes, this is a big deal, if you're me. Also if you're going slowly crazy from trying to keep track of everything that needs to be accomplished in the next one hundred and twenty-two days.

Pardon me while I flail.

Also pardon me while I open the floor to questions. See, I want to give away a few galleys (and I'll have a longer post about why I have so many, and what's being done with most of them, a little later), and that means I need contests. Suggest things! What do you think would make a good contest? "One that I can win" is not a good answer, by the by.

I leave you with Sonnet 122, because I find structured poetry deeply soothing:

Thy gift, thy tables, are within my brain
Full character'd with lasting memory,
Which shall above that idle rank remain,
Beyond all date; even to eternity:
Or, at the least, so long as brain and heart
Have faculty by nature to subsist;
Till each to raz'd oblivion yield his part
Of thee, thy record never can be miss'd.
That poor retention could not so much hold,
Nor need I tallies thy dear love to score;
Therefore to give them from me was I bold,
To trust those tables that receive thee more:
To keep an adjunct to remember thee
Were to import forgetfulness in me.

—William Shakespeare.


Whew.
(The scene: riding around in the car with Mom, doing errands. Because there are always errands to be done. But as these errands included getting the frame order for my book covers placed, neither of us really minded.)

Mom: So I finished my book.

(She looks sorrowfully towards Goblin War, barely visible in her bag.)

Me: Cool.
Mom: Is he writing another one? I'm going to write him a letter and tell him he has to write another one.
Me: I don't think he's writing another one right now.
Mom: He has to.

(I pause to consider the idea of what my editor -- who is also Jim's editor -- would do to me if my mother went to his house to make him write another Jig novel.)

Me: Well, maybe someday. Mermaid's Madness comes out in October.
Mom: The Jig books were so good. I loved the way [spoilers redacted]. And when I found out he was [spoilers redacted], I just about died. I did not see that coming.
Me: So you liked them.
Mom: Hell, yeah.
Me: Cool.

(More discussion follows. And then:)

Mom: So you're going to meet him while you're in Michigan?
Me: Hope so.
Mom: Tell him Smudge needs to find a Lady Smudge.

(There is a pause as I consider this. Finally...)

Me: It'll be all Charlotte's Web meets Firestarter up in the caves.
Mom: Exactly.

So Jim, your seduction of my mother continues. I WILL HAVE MY REVENGE. In other news, Rosemary and Rue comes out in 164 days. 164 is the smallest number which is the concatenation of squares in two different ways. I really love the word 'concatenate.'

That is all.
(Please note that the things in my subject header will not necessarily be presented in the order in which they were, um, presented. Don't mind me, I'm very blonde today.)

Travel plans, take one: As many people have been able to put together from my vague rumblings, I'm heading for New York a week from, um, yesterday. Yeep. This is almost purely a business trip, as I'm going out to see my publisher, have lunch with my agent, and generally behave like a grown-up member of human society. (Kate even managed to get me into wool pants. Everybody say 'thank you, Kate.') I'm taking a red-eye flight from San Francisco on Tuesday night, and I'm going to be gone until the Ides of March. Internet access will almost certainly be limited during this time, because dude, I'll be in New York. Also, this is going to be Yet Another Trip to the East Coast during which I don't get to go to Maine. Given the estimated temperature in Maine at this time of year, that's probably for the best.

Travel plans, take two: I'm taking a much shorter trip at the beginning of April, flying up to Seattle to see my dearest darlingest Vixy and Tony, catch the pure hammered awesome that is Sooj in concert, and, oh, right, pick up my brand new kitten from Pinecoon Maine Coon Cattery. Pinecoon is run by Betsy Tinney, who's also serving as one of my subject matter experts for Discount Armageddon. It's weird to think that I'm about to have a cat that isn't a Classic Siamese, but I wasn't able to find any local catteries with kittens -- and I'll be honest, I fell in love with Betsy's cats the minute I walked in. I'm not happy about leaving Lilly alone while I go to New York, but at least I know her only cat status isn't going to last for long. Plus, my kitten? Is awesome.

Number geekery: According to today's count, Rosemary and Rue comes out in 180 days. This is a good number, but I liked yesterday's number better, because 181 is a strobogrammatic prime. A strobogrammatic prime is a prime number that, given a base and given a set of glyphs, appears the same whether viewed normally or upside down. It's one of the only primes that can't be defined with a simple algebraic equation. Also, depending on the way a given language writes its numbers, certain primes change from strobogrammatic to not strobogrammatic. And this is so cool. There just aren't words for the awesome. (I am a total number geek.)

And now, behind the cut, the cool.

We cut because this graphic is not small, and breaking your browser is rude.Collapse )

Now the numbers are so much easier!

Point the first: Yes, I am intending to count down, like a small child anticipating Christmas. No, I am not intending to post the numbers every day, because that would be crazy-making for everyone involved. Yes, I am probably going to post whenever we get a number that really interests me. Like...

Point the second: 192 is the sum of ten consecutive primes (5 + 7 + 11 + 13 + 17 + 19 + 23 + 29 + 31 + 37). It's also the smallest number with exactly 14 divisors. Oh, and also? That's how many member states are currently in the United Nations. I love you, number theory books and Wikipedia.

Point the third: If you're really aching for a first look at Rosemary and Rue, there will be an excerpt included in the DAW Books Summer Sampler, which is being handed out at the San Diego Comic Convention. It'll probably be available other places, too -- I found copies in several genre-oriented bookstores last year -- but I can guarantee its presence at Comicon. As an added bonus, I can guarantee my presence at Comicon, which means you can not only snag a copy of the sampler, you can get it signed.

Point the fourth: We're working on getting the website fully up to speed, and yes, this is eventually going to mean that we'll have landing pages for each of the Toby Daye books. A sample of the text will probably be going up after the Summer Sampler has been officially released; we'll probably be able to get the cover up there about the same time. I promise not to taunt you forever.

This is such a big adventure. There are no words.

Triskaidekaphilia.

As a kid, I was totally fascinated by numbers. Especially odd numbers (a fascination that would later translate into an obsession with primes, but that's another story, and one that doesn't really factor today -- except to note that 'February 13,' or '2/13' is a pair of primes -- the next prime-numbered year isn't until 2011). And, as I began my lifelong obsession with horror movies, especially the number thirteen.

It's an interesting fact that most people will give their lucky number as two, three, or seven, all of which are primes (and all of which are odd). Nine is also a common lucky number, and while it isn't prime, it's the result of squaring a prime. And yes, I actually sit around thinking about this stuff, which is why I have several books on my 'get around to writing this someday' list that feature mathematicians to one degree or another. Math is hard, but it makes me happy. Anyway, after examining the concept of the lucky number, and the numbers of those around me, I settled on my own lucky number: thirteen. As my horror movie education continued, I decided that Friday the thirteenth was obviously the luckiest day of all for me, because everybody else was creating a good luck void as they sucked up the world's supply of bad luck.

I never claimed that my logic made sense.

I love Friday the thirteenth. I love the doom-crows flocking around crying that we're all going to walk under ladders, break our mothers' backs by stepping on cracks, and have our paths crossed by spontaneously-generated black cats. (I don't love that people with black cats need to keep them indoors or risk losing them -- much like on Halloween -- but that's another issue.) I love the Halloween air that falls over the day, no matter when it comes along. I love that I get Halloween and then Valentine's Day this year, bam-bam, like a double-scoop of awesome.

I love Friday the 13th: The Series, and Friday the 13th the film series, and Thirteen by Vixy and Tony, and writing rondeaus, and Scott Westerfield's Midnighters trilogy. I love Baker's Dozens, and bouquets with thirteen flowers, and watching hotels pretend that they don't have thirteen floors, and everything else about the number thirteen.

What's your position?

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