"As to hanging, it is no great hardship...": Internet Piracy, and Who It Hurts.

So despite having downloaded certain music back wen it wasn't illegal yet... I never steal books. Not even when having a PDF might be more 'convenient' (ie RPG Gaming Books like D&D ect). Books are sacred. The smell of new ink when I first open the covers of a new fiction is heaven.
I'm no saint, but this is where my priorities lie. So when I was unemployed, flat broke, didn't even have a car in a city with next to know public transportation, and haunted the bookstore like a junkie short of a fix... I BOUGHT my books. Sometimes that meant scraping together the change from the couch cushions, or begging a few dollars from a friend, or waiting weeks to get the book I was dying to read. I had a computer, I had internet. I might have easily stolen the books for free. But the thought never occurred to me. Books are sacred.
It's sad that so few people understand that anymore.
That said, since you gave me a copy of Rosemary and Rue should I go out and buy another to increase your copies sold? :-)
I truly am impressed and astounded by the amount of projects you can juggle, and the speed at which you bring out more fiction. Keep up the great work!

I found your books thanks to a download. Read half of Rosemary and Rue and then went out and bought it because I thought it was a great read. Thus, I've purchased each and every one of your books in print none of which I would have discovered if not for that download. I've also promoted your books recommended them to family and friends who have went out and purchased their own copy. I can understand why you're livid about it but there is some shade of grey in that there are people who will discover your work in this way and will go out and buy your books that they wouldn't otherwise. I can understand you not agreeing with it but I'm an example of that group. You want to hammer in the fact that I should feel guilty about it and you've succeeded but if not for the download I'd never have read your books, followed your website, read this Live Journal entry, etc.

Quite frankly I'm interested in if you see me as somehow an 'inferior' fan or some such due to my way of discovering your work even though I've purchased every novel you've put out.

Note: I haven't slept, so forgive me if any of this is messy.

I'm going to start off by saying two things just so I don't get mauled (not saying I will, but it's happened before). First, I'm a creator and currently I'm not entirely sure where I stand on unauthorised copying/distribution, but I tend to lean in favour of creator having full control. Second, the reason for my vague stance is that I've not seen convincing evidence that either "side" is being really truthful and so it obscures the actual scope/impact of the actions. And that even when there is objective data it isn't fully compelling in favor or opposition to it.

That said, I think piracy focused discussions are an oversimplification of whats occurring.(And that's not meant as an insult) I believe creators are under pressure from a number of sources, even as there are new opportunities.

On torrents (I'm assuming from your post that you're not very familiar with the tech, forgive me if thats presumptuous):
You don't need to estimate the amount of downloads that have occurred. All torrents (legal and illegal) function in the same way, and include the number of "snatches" or "completes" that have occurred. Often the web interface of trackers will display that number, or you can use a torrent client to "scrape" (request info, without downloading anything) to get the number if they do not. Basically, if you want more solid numbers they're easy to get.

Regarding torrent alerts, you're probably getting a number of duplicates. If you've set it up for just a search term, that number is likely high (automated responders generate traps based on search terms and amplify results, quoted replies, discussion in general, etc, etc). If you set it for file type specifically, that is more accurate. However, it still won't differentiate between a new instance of the torrent (i.e. a new tracker) and simple spread of the metadata file. "Popularity"/"Violation" would be better based on number of trackers (and their comparative popularity), then snatches, then seeds, then leechers.

Please also be aware, that torrents have a common pattern of diminishing scale over time (brief high activity that quickly goes down) and remain visible, even when they are dead (tracker is active, but no activity on torrent or any seeds).

I mention these things, so if you desire you can get a far more accurate assessment of personal impact on yourself/your work. Especially since not having an accurate view could obscure other factors impacting you.

On piracy:
A large number of studies on the impact of piracy have been disregarded, especially recently as being heavily flawed. Particularly the main 3 that are usually cited and which have been sourced repeatedly for additional studies. The United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) explored their methodologies and found that they all had limitations and that the impact of piracy is incredibly difficult, if not impossible to determine. So, basically, we know it's an issue, but not how significant a one. Which is why the torrent stuff mentioned above may be helpful.

Regarding the belief that an instance of downloading/copying equates to a lost sale, there is no evidence of this I'm afraid. It's an assumption. There is actually evidence to the contrary and from unbiased sources (see this example: http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/ippd-dppi.nsf/eng/ip01462.html
(Piracy data has always been treated as media independent to date, if anyone is wondering. And also, it should be noted that Canada has amongst the lowest piracy rate in comparison with other OECD countries which may color these findings, as well).

I mention these things for greater understanding, not as a negation against piracy concerns or a proponent of the practice. Ron Marz (whose tweet I followed here) answered a question I had with the anecdotal four times illegal to legal sales in comic books and it made me cringe. I do think piracy is something that needs to be addressed to some degree, but I do think it's impact is only a small part of the whole.

Now, scary part over... the rest of my thoughts =P

I've seen a number of discussions regarding the decline in mid-list authors. Most of this seems to stem from a different viewpoint from publishers, and many attribute it to the trends seen with huge series sales like Harry Potter and Twilight (among others). Effectively, that the business view, especially in a recession, is that only large scale returns are acceptable for the degree of risk. That even if mid-listers managed to pull a few thousand more sales it still wouldn't save them from the axe. If I remember correctly, a large number of posts I read on this were from Publishers Weekly (which were often linking to other discussions as well) so you should be able to search there for that info.

In regards to pricing, there is a cultural trend towards the expectation of them being lower and increased value. This is in part due to the recession, but also because disposable income is split between a higher number of potential mediums and niches. (As an e.g. small scale studies have indicated that a person with 50 dollars to spend may spend it on a large single purchase, say 40 dollars... but are more likely to spend the full 50 if the purchases as smaller, say 30 and 20. And this is how choices are being made, because more potential choices are competing for the same amount without a change in pricing strategy.) This is also reflected for example in the digital sales of music, with much higher track versus album volume. One of the primary ways to counter this so far, has been to create multiple media formats to ensure the widest market accessibility and have discounted pricing. But, also providing low cost extras, sometimes varying the availability based on medium (some people purchase different mediums of the same content for the different extras).

Not having content as many accessible mediums as possible, even if you disregard piracy, means you will lose out to other competitors who do have that in place. (E.g. Someones wants to read on their iPad, they are more likely to pick a book they want less than yours because of the convenience and match to their habits, than buy your paper book. The success of itunes is a case study in this, these days. If they can get two other books for the price of your one... that's obvious as well)

And finally, theres the issue of increased competition. As well as the increase in product types, there has been a massive increase in producers/creators. Even if the majority are amateurs or don't gain significant success, they still chip away at the distribution of funds and attention that is available as a whole.

I'm not sure if any of this is helpful, but I hope so... and I'm starting to go crossed eyed =P

I'll just say in closing, that whatever problem piracy is, I don't think it's where creators should be focusing their energies. Morally, it makes me cringe... But, I don't think fighting it head on will bring any gains, not without costs which are beyond their worth. I think there are far more pressing concerns to broach and that overcoming those can still ensure creators stay successful. Thats what I hope for, for my sake and everyone else. The alternative seems to be akin to waiting to die off.

Anyway, agree or disagree with what I've said, and whether it was useful or not, I wish you the best of luck. I hope things get better for you =)

Be well,
Norm

Hoo boy, this is fun. I write about copyright all of the time on my blog, now I get to do some of it here too.

OK, first off, it's not piracy. Piracy involves violence on the high seas. In this case it's copyright infringement.

Why does the difference matter? Well, way back in the old days a guy called Robert Louis Stevenson was trying to scare people, so he picked the scariest word he could think of and used it. Since he'd written a novel about pirates (Treasure Island) piracy was on his mind.

Piracy is covered under criminal law. Copyright Infringement is covered under civil law. In the United States I understand that in some places, if you have a criminal conviction, you are barred from voting, making a criminal conviction in those areas very serious (I'm an inveterate political junkie, always pushing people to exercise their franchise, so to me not being able to vote is really serious).

Now we get to the fun stuff. Does copyright infringement actually affect creators? Commercial copyright infringement definitely does. If I were to print 5000 copies of Rosemary and Rue and sell them, yes, it would damage your sales. However studies have shown that non-commercial copyright infringement may or may not damage sales. The studies are all over the place, with curiously the RIAA and MPAA studies (which were not peer reviewed) indicating damage, and the independent studies (which were peer reviewed) showing neutral effects.

Let's consider some facts:

1) Author Corey Doctorow has copies of all of his books available for download on his website.
2) All of David Weber's books published by Baen included compact discs with electronic copies of all his Baen published books.
3) Mercedes Lackey had a book put into the Baen free library, and sales of her books published by DAW rose.
4) P.C. Hodgell sold out her newest book after Baen published a five chapter teaser.
5) Tom Smith used to work at a bank. Think of what he does now.
6) Paul Coelho uploads his own books to torrent sites, he says it helps sales.

So what is really happening? The problem is that no one knows for certain. I've been following both sides of this for a long time, and writing about it for a year now. I'm 100% certain that the 'sky is falling' crowd is wrong. As to what Corey is doing, is it helping his sales? I don't know, and I don't think he knows either. But he's still in business. As is David Weber, who's selling more books than ever. Mercedes Lackey sells a hell of a lot of books too. Pat Hodgell seems to have finally found well deserved success - damned good writer who never got the advertising needed so that anyone even knew she was writing before.

Tim O'Reilly thinks that obscurity is a greater danger than piracy. To quote Tim:

That's why we started studying the impact of piracy on paid sales almost two years ago. On an admittedly limited sample... we've found an apparent correlation between piracy and subsequent growth in paid sales.

Is Tim right? Well, he's in a lot better position, as a publisher to tell, than most people. And I'm leaning strongly towards his position. I mentioned Tom Smith above. Before internet usage became widespread no one (except us filkers, the few, the proud, the insane) knew who he was. Now he's gaining fans in some really interesting places (I know about this, because I told them about him).

So maybe your best option would be to do up a special edition of Rosemary and Rue for the internet. One that is properly formatted, with a special front page that tells the reader that he or she can buy a personally signed copy directly from your website, along with a signed copy of your newest Compact Disc, and that you'll through in some cat hairs from your assistant authors for free, and see what happens. After all, the torrents are already out there anyway. Why not see if you can use them to make money? I know of one guy who found that the his comic had been scanned and uploaded to 4Chan. He dropped in and joined the conversation, and his sales went up. Maybe it can work for you too.

Wayne
http://madhatter.ca

You must live in a rich neighborhood.