Seanan McGuire (seanan_mcguire) wrote,
Seanan McGuire
seanan_mcguire

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The mathematics of the midlist.

Okay, so here's the thing:

At my DucKon reading, I was making jokes about "the thirty-five dollar retirement plan"—IE, "if everyone I know bought that many copies of my books, I'd be a lot closer to no longer needing a day job." While this really was a joke—I intend to be working in an office environment for a while yet, since I like having health insurance and paying for cable—there was also an aspect of seriousness to it. The midlist is in trouble, and has been in trouble for quite some time.

What's the midlist?

Well, to quote Wikipedia (source of all knowledge): "Midlist is a term in the publishing industry which refers to books which are not bestsellers but are strong enough to economically justify their publication (and likely, further purchases of future books from the same author). The vast majority of total titles published are midlist titles, though they represent a much smaller fraction of total book sales, which are dominated by bestsellers and other very popular titles."

Most genre authors are publishing "in the midlist." This has always been the case, and it's not a bad thing—my favorite author may be considered a blockbuster sort of a guy (Stephen King), but the majority of the authors I adore are solidly midlist, and have been for the length of their careers. I am honored to know that my books will be in the midlist, at least until my mother gets her way and convinces the entire West Coast to buy them. (If I don't type that, she'll hit me.)

So why is the midlist in trouble? A lot of reasons. Some of them have to do with marketing, some have to do with the business models of the larger chain bookstores, some have to do with the fact that people are reading less, and some have to do with the big books becoming bigger than they've ever been before. When most people only read one book a year, if that book was written by Nora Roberts instead of Jeri Smith-Ready, it matters.

Where's the math?

This will seem like a tangent, but bear with me: I was asked recently whether I had a problem with used bookstores and libraries, since the author only gets paid once. I do not have a problem with either of these things. I'd be a hypocrit if I had a problem with used bookstores, since every used bookstore owner in the East Bay knows me by name, and libraries are proof that humanity is worthy of existence. Plus, libraries do provide reporting, and they track what's popular, stocking additional copies of the things that people really want to read. Used bookstores are a form of recycling. I've always seen them as running on a sort of karma, since you only get what you really want if you're dedicated, lucky, and persistent. I have good used bookstore karma. I work very hard to maintain it.

That being said, especially with the authors in the midlist, numbers really matter. Let's say I got a ten dollar advance for Rosemary and Rue (for the sake of keeping the numbers simple). Now, I get 6% of the cover price of the first 150,000 units sold, and 8% of anything after that, since presumably once my publisher has sold that many, they really want to keep me happy. I think we figured out that this was roughly forty-eight cents a book, at current mass-market cover price. Let's call it fifty cents, because again, math is hard. It's like a word problem:

Seanan is paid a ten dollar advance for her new book. Her publisher credits her fifty cents for every copy they sell. After they have made more money than the amount of her advance, they will start paying her that money as royalties. How many copies must Seanan's book sell before she can pay the grocery bill? How many copies must Seanan's book sell before her publisher will buy the next one?

With these highly simplified numbers, the answer is easy: clearly, I need to sell twenty books to earn out my advance, and when the twenty-first book sells, woo-hoo, I can buy a can of generic soda! (Well, not really. Remember that my agent gets seven cents out of that fifty, to pay her commission. So really, there will be no celebratory soda until the twenty-second book flies off the shelf.) The trouble is that real advances, even small ones, tend to be larger than ten dollars, which means I need to sell a lot more copies before my publisher will be a happy camper.

How many copies need to sell before they want to keep publishing me? That math is truly beyond my ken, for which I am glad, as I like to sleep at night. But that is why I keep telling people where they can buy my books, and why, my passionate love of used bookstores aside, I recommend buying the books of currently-publishing midlist authors new whenever you can manage to swing it. Those little fifty-cent-per-book transactions add up, and it's the final number that really matters.

Math is hard. Where's my damn strawberry ice cream?
Tags: business needs, contemplation, math is awesome, writing
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  • 41 comments

angel_vixen

June 19 2009, 19:41:45 UTC 8 years ago Edited:  June 19 2009, 19:42:21 UTC

I never totally understood the mathematics of the industry until I started working in a bookstore, and our stock was almost entirely limited by bestsellers. We were the smallest location of our local chain, so we got every single Nora Roberts book in existence (not to mention Stephanie Meyers, Clive Cussler, and Janet Evanovich)...but where, I asked, were the <other popular writer here> books?

I love the used bookstores around me, and I seriously am of the opinion that two of them would have gone out of business in the past few months if killernurd, nakazan, and I were not visiting them every couple of weeks.

ETA: Also -- <gives Seanan strawberry ice-cream>

AngelVixen :-)
YAY STRAWBERRY ICE CREAM!

I'm so easy.

angel_vixen

8 years ago

seanan_mcguire

8 years ago

angel_vixen

8 years ago

seanan_mcguire

8 years ago

Out of curiousity, do e-books count the same as any other purchase? Meaning, they obviously have their own prices so the payout may differ but does the publisher still just count it as a sale like any other?
Oh, absolutely. The royalty rate for e-books, book club editions, and all other "alternative" channels will be detailed in any given writer's contract, and all those percentages count against earning out the advance.

Goal one: earn out advance.
Goal two: make NY Times Best-Seller List.
Goal three: profit.

raelee

8 years ago

seanan_mcguire

8 years ago

vixyish

8 years ago

Remember that my agent gets seven cents out of that fifty, to pay her commission.

And the IRS gets 7 cents, because you're paying both halves of social security. That's before income tax, which is at the top rate of your day job.

"There should be more math. It should be mathier."
Once you start getting into taxes, I start wanting to hit people with a fire axe. It's a whole thing. I don't enjoy it.
I am trying to push Rosemary and Rue at everyone on my f-list. I am hoping to get my thoughts on it coherent enough to do a review of sorts on my LJ, but part of me wants to read more Toby Daye stories right now!

So, I am on my second read to read with a more critical (as in what I see in it) eye towards giving a worthy review. BTW, 'twill be very positive, but I want the chance to rave over your work.
Yay for reviews! Please let me know when it gets posted, since reviews are the whole point of ARCs.
Math is easy. Understanding how society has shaped the book market so unfortunately is hard. Fixing society is really hard.
Even with a chainsaw, fixing society is really hard. It's sad. :(
This post is full of thoughtfullness and informationality.

Hooray!
I have faith you'll do well. There are already indications of that.
(I, however, am clearly designed to be a solid mid-lister.)
which leads me to ask - is your icon one of your book covers? and if so, is it available, because it looks like something I might like :)

la_marquise_de_

8 years ago

lysystratae

8 years ago

seanan_mcguire

8 years ago

ok, already pre-ordered thru amazon... and I've got a couple birthday/other holiday presents to plan for... need to go to all the local stores and preorder there, too :)

ooo, and if I get my Kindle, there's another one to buy...

You might just end up selling me 10 of the darned things, lol
Glee!
I encountered your lj through another author's blog (Tanya Huff, I think, although it's possible someone mentioned you on Tammy Pierce's ).

I have to say that if your books are as interesting as your posts, I may pick up a few (plus maybe a CD :) ) when I go on my long-awaited book-buying spree...

That is, when I get a job and have some kind of income that I don't need to send toward college-related stuff. So, maybe, just maybe you'll have another fan soon. ;)

Also, I love math. It's probably possible to construct some sort of equation, integral, or otherwise that would model sales needed for you... Kidding, mostly. But I am good at it. :)
Math makes me happy. See also "I find the counter in my profile to be the most incredibly soothing thing ever, and intend to beg its maker to do one for A Local Habitation next."

Also, yay! Welcome. Tanya's a good friend of mine, so that may well be where you came in from. I do hope you like my stuff. :) You can read short stories in my superhero universe for free on my website, if you ever get curious.

Re: Well...

vixyish

8 years ago

Re: Well...

seanan_mcguire

8 years ago

Deleted comment

Audio is generally handled by the publisher. Some publishers include a clause stating that the author must do their own audio book if asked. I, thankfully, do not have that clause. So I don't know if the audio is happening.
"libraries are proof that humanity is worthy of existence."

OK, I have to say this: I love you for this one sentence. Thank you. ;-)
You're welcome!

Deleted comment

Hooray!

This is all very relevant to my interests. :)
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that while the pecentage of people reading is slowly going down, the actual number of people reading is getting higher.

The population of the world keeps growing, so more books are being brought, just by a smaller percentage of the population? Which is still, technically, more people than it was 50 years ago?
You're almost certainly right (statistics are hard). The trouble is that, at least in the US, the people who are reading have a tendency to all be reading the same book.

talithakalago

8 years ago

seanan_mcguire

8 years ago

This little post reminds me of an essay written by another author, Ms. C.J. Cherryh: How Writers Make a Living.

I'd love to make and send you some strawberry ice cream, but I've this odd suspicion that it would be kinda messy by the time it got to you.
Yeah, I think we can skip.